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WHY THE MARKET IS NEVER WRONG, BUT YOU ARE

When it comes to trading and investing it seems that just about everyone and their dog has an opinion about whre the market is headed next. The markets somehow attract displays of over inflated egos. Reading or watching the financial news  is akin to watching a comedy show. Particularly when you remind yourself that most of the writers and speakers have never earned a living trading or investing.

Trading and investing  are areas where everyone can be an expert without training. And here is the big issue: Most of us lack the knowledge how to assess the skills of the so called expert s who are dishing out trading advice and lure you into opening accounts with them.  Sorting the wheat from the chuff is a skilled job in itself and requires  an in depth knowledge about financial risk mangament, cycles, strategy and market psychology.

Oh, yes, it is mainly about ego and a total lack of appreciation about what is involved to become a good trader and investor.

Add to that the countless adverts from stockbrokers, spread betting firms and the like who will tell you just how easily you too can make money and it is easy to see just why so many fall into the financial trap. All it takes is to go to a seminar put a few grand on the table and, hey presto, the following week you will emerge a master trader and investor, right?

Well, wrong! Granted, I will not deny that there are exceptions and that some people will actually become masterful traders or investors without going through a steep and often totally demoralising learning curve, which normally involves losing a ton of money first before becoming consistently profitable.

However, the vast majority of people, 95%, lose money in the markets and the reason for this is actually very simple:

It is to do with greed, fear of losing; and trading your ego. These are the cardinal sins of any trader and investor.

The market represents mass consciousness. In fact, it is a reflection of what the majority of pundits are thinking at any given moment in time. What somewhat complicates the view of the markets though is that it consists of many groups with different interests and different time frames. There are long term investors, speculators, ever optimistic stockbrokers, fund managers who have to trade in line with strict rules and there are short term traders, automated systems operated by big funds, just to mention a few of these interest groups. Add to that regular government intervention via bond issues etc. and the picture becomes even more diffused.

Together these groups are powerful. Yet you as an individual trader or investor are bigheaded enough to think that you can have an opinion about market direction that counts. Actually, the mere idea is ludicrous. It is like a strand of grass standing in a gale force storm steadfastly refusing to bend because it is summer and the weather is supposed to be calm.

Market forces and not what you think dictate direction. This holds true, irrespective of whether you are short term or long term in your market views.

Good trading and investing are about understanding life, cycles and human psychology and interpreting these and their many nuances as they are presented on a graph. It is about reacting to market forces and not about acting on an opinion. What you think about where it is going actually does not matter. Your ability to cut out unnecessary noise and understanding where we are in a cycle is paramount to success.

Trading and investing are never about being right but always about alignment with market action. The good trader/ investor will inevitable develop a deeper understanding of the natural rhythm of cycles which are present in everything. I could also say that cycles are the energy matrix of the universe.

Understanding this fundamental truth goes a long way to trading and investment success.

It is true that everyone can learn to become good at investing and trading. It takes time, commitment and probably less money than you think. It is dangerous to think though that you can somehow sidestep the learning and start making money right away just by having an opinion  about where the market is going. I guarantee you the market will spank you more often than your pain threshold can tolerate, so it is best not to have an opinion to start with and learn to go with the flow. Paradoxically, this more relaxed attitude will bring you trading success faster than any attempts at figuring out direction.

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